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6 Football Betting Strategies to Help You Beat the Bookies

by S. Ateljevic  ·  April 7, 2021

Even though betting is fun and exciting, a long losing streak can quickly turn betting into a tiresome and frustrating activity. However, winning money from betting is not impossible, and if you want to win, you need to put in some work. The bare minimum you should do is research the leagues and the teams you are betting on. However, if you are a serious punter and willing to go the extra mile, we’ve prepared several football betting strategies for you.

Even though these strategies may sound like something only advanced punters can use, most of them are beginner-friendly. A few of them are designed to improve your odds of landing a successful bet, while some of them are guaranteed to help you make a profit, so make sure to check them out.

8 Quick Facts About Football Betting Strategies That Work

• If you are serious about making a profit from betting, you need to have a football betting strategy.
• Arbitrage betting and matched betting can net you profits, no matter the outcome.
• Matched betting relies on free bets.
• The Kelly Criterion method can maximise the value of your wager.
• Online calculators can help you easily determine if arbitrage betting is applicable.
• Always look for the best odds offered by multiple bookmakers.
• The Martingale system doesn’t work for football betting.
• You can get better value bets by combining lay betting with in-play betting.

1. Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting is one of the best football betting strategies that is guaranteed to net you profit, no matter the outcome of the match. This strategy exploits the variation in odds among different bookmakers and betting apps as well as betting exchanges. The idea behind it is to bet on both outcomes to ensure profit. The only disadvantage of arbitrage betting is that the strategy is not always applicable.

Bookmakers often provide different odds for various betting markets they offer, and as you already know, bookmakers and betting exchanges often disagree with one another. If the difference in odds between a bookmaker and betting exchange is significant enough, you can take advantage of successful football betting strategies like arbitrage betting and secure profit.

For example, let’s say that Manchester City is playing Fulham. Since Manchester City is a favourite, a bookmaker set the odds of 1.43 for Manchester City to win. Betting exchange, however, is giving the odds of 3.9 to lay against Manchester City. In other words, the betting exchange is giving the odds of 3.9 for Fulham to win or for the game to end in a draw.

Now that we have an example and a chart to follow, let’s take a closer look at what makes arbitrage betting one of the most successful football betting strategies out there.

Arbing Example

The first thing we need to do is bet £100 on Manchester City to win. Then, we need to calculate how much we need to lay against Manchester City to make a profit. The simplest way of doing it is finding an online arbitrage betting calculator. In our case, the calculator says we need to bet £36.7 at the betting exchange to make a profit.

Since we bet £36.7 at the betting exchange at the odds of 3.9, we will win £143.13 if our wager is successful. In case Manchester City wins, we will win £143 from the bookmaker since we bet £100 at the odds of 1.43. In total, we bet £100 + £36.7, which is £136.7, meaning that no matter the outcome of the match, we will make a small profit, which is why arbitrage betting is one of the most successful football betting strategies.

The most difficult part about arbitrage betting is that you would have to invest time and effort into finding matches where arbitrage betting is applicable. Apart from arbitrage betting calculators, you can also use websites like Oddschcker to compare the odds and find a suitable match to bet on.

Additionally, another way to make football betting strategies like arbitrage betting work is through Price Boost promotions. Namely, some bookmakers will often increase the odds of a specific match they want you to bet on, while other bookmakers will retain their regular odds. If the difference between the boosted and regular odds is significant enough, you can apply the same strategy and use bookmakers’ odds against them to secure profit.

However, since you would be using two bookmakers in this case, a draw is still an option because you are not laying against a team. For that reason, you need to make sure that you are betting exclusively on the draw no bet market so that you can eliminate a draw from the list of possible outcomes.

2. Matched Betting

Matched betting is, in a way, similar to arbitrage betting. However, instead of relying on the difference in odds across multiple bookies, it requires a free bet to work. One of the reasons we consider both arbitrage betting and matched betting to be good football betting strategies is that they are both beginner-friendly and relatively easy to learn and use. Here’s how it works.

To use matched betting, you will first find a bookmaker that has an active free bet promotion. You then need to register on its betting site, claim the promotion, find a game with suitable odds, and bet on one outcome.

When it comes to matched betting strategies in football, an ideal bet for this strategy would be the one where there’s no clear favourite. For example, let’s say that Chelsea is playing Arsenal and that the bookie has given Chelsea the odds of 1.70 to win, while the betting exchange has given the odds of 1.80 to lay against Chelsea. A bet like this is perfect for matched betting.

Of course, you can always find matches with higher odds, as long as there is no big difference between the odds given by the top football betting bookies. Note that in this case, you will need a lot more money in your betting exchange account to cover lay liability.

How to Properly Utilise a Matched Betting Strategy?

To make football betting strategies like matched betting work, you would first bet on Chelsea at the bookmaker where you claimed the free bet promotion. Afterward, you need to find a betting exchange where you will lay against Chelsea. In other words, you will bet on every outcome apart from Chelsea winning.

Normally, this strategy would always cause you to lose a small amount if you were to bet on both outcomes. For example, let’s say that we got £50 in free bets. If we were to place £50 on Chelsea to win and lay £50 against Chelsea, we would win £85 or £90, respectively. As you can see, that’s less than £100 we had to invest for two bets. However, since we are using a free bet promotion, we are basically only spending £50 of our money, and everything we win above £50 is a profit.

3. Football Spread Betting Strategies

Spread betting doesn’t work like regular betting. With regular betting, you bet a certain amount on set odds, and you can either win or lose your initial stake. However, with spread betting, the more accurate your bet is, the more you can win. Simultaneously, the more far off you are from the outcome, the more money you will lose.

When it comes to spread betting, a bookie will propose a line instead of regular odds. If you think there will be more goals than the proposed line, you will buy a spread. In contrast, if you believe there will be fewer goals than the proposed line, you will sell the spread.

Betting at the Last Minute

Among numerous football spread betting strategies, one of the most popular spread strategies is to simply bet at the last minute. As people buy and sell spreads, the odds continuously change in spread betting. Moreover, with this type of betting, you are not always betting on the outcome of a match.

Instead, bookies offer dozens of different markets, and you can bet on the number of corners, yellow cards, or even if a player is going to be a part of the starting eleven. For that reason, the more you wait, the more information you can obtain about the game, which can greatly impact your bet.

Other successful football betting strategies for spread betting include basic stuff like sticking to a single market. Instead of betting on as many markets as you can and risking a big chunk of your bankroll with bad bets, stick to what you know. After all, the closer you are to the final outcome with your bet, the more profit you can make.

4. Football Lay Betting Strategies

Like we mentioned before, laying against a team means betting on every other outcome except for that team to win. Apart from matched betting, lay betting is used in many other betting strategies.

We all know that predicting the correct score is one of the most difficult bets to land because there are many possible outcomes. However, instead of betting against numerous possibilities, you can place a wager against a specific outcome with lay betting.

For example, rather than betting on 15 different correct scores, you can simply lay against the away team winning 0:3. In this case, you would win a wager if anything other than 0:3 comes, which makes it significantly easier to predict than betting on the correct score.

In-Play Betting

Additionally, one of the football lay betting strategies requires adding in-play betting to the mix. For example, let’s say that once again, Manchester City is playing against Fulham at City’s home pitch. Even though Manchester City is a favourite, the odds on them to win would significantly change if Fulham somehow takes the lead in the first half.

Naturally, since Manchester City has more than enough time to recover and win, you can lay against Fulham at a betting exchange at higher odds than you would get before the game started or if the score was 0:0.

There are many ways to use lay betting. As is the case with other football betting strategies that work, you shouldn’t be afraid to experiment a bit and find out how you can combine different strategies to your advantage. For example, punters often combine price boost promotions with arbitrage betting, and similar can be done with lay betting. Unlike with spread betting, you shouldn’t always stick to the same market. Instead, mix it up a little and try to combine lay betting with in-play betting whenever it is advantageous for you.

5. Accumulator Betting Strategies in Football

Bets like draw no bet, over/under goals, double chance, or both teams to score are some of the easiest bets to predict. Of course, that means that the odds on these betting markets are not always high, which is why punters often disregard them for their low value. However, this is potentially a huge mistake since these betting markets make it easier to place a winning wager. After all, it’s better to win small than chase big profits and lose.

The best way to take advantage of these easy bets is to make them a part of your accumulator football betting strategy. As you may know, accumulator bets allow you to combine several different bets into a single one, so to get the most value out of these easy bets, simply use them as fillers in an accumulator bet.

How to Win an Acca Bet?

To win an acca bet, you have to predict all the selections on your acca bet correctly. In some cases, a bookmaker will return your stake if you predict all but one match, but you are still left with having to predict five or more bets. For that reason, accumulator bets are extremely hard to land, and it is difficult finding football betting strategies that work well, which is particularly true for accumulator bets.

However, if you take advantage of the easy bets and combine them into an accumulator bet, you will boost your chances of landing an acca win. Simultaneously, despite the lower odds on bets like over/under goals, you can still make a nice profit by adding a few “regular” bets to the mix. Because of how the odds are added up and multiplied with the accumulator bets, you are still bound to make a good profit, but at much lower risk than usual.

6. The Kelly Criterion Method

The Kelly Criterion method is one of the best football betting strategies, but also the riskiest. The strategy is based on money management, and it tries to maximise the value of your bets by determining the percentage of your bankroll you should use to bet. In other words, it often requires you to bet a substantial amount of your bankroll to make a profit.

To calculate the amount that you should wager on a specific match, you should follow this formula:

Stake = (Decimal Odds x Win Probability) -1) / (Decimal Odds -1) x 100

Even though it sounds relatively easy at first glance, the trick is in actually calculating the equation. With other football betting strategies, all the data is available to you, and it is only a matter of following the formula. When it comes to the Kelly Criterion method, you can easily obtain decimal odds from the bookmaker’s site, but you will have to calculate the win probability by yourself. 

What makes this method risky is that there is no definite way to calculate win probability, and you need to rely entirely on your expertise as a punter. However, if you misinterpreted the team’s chances to win, the result of the entire equation becomes skewed, and you might end up losing a sizable percentage of your bankroll.

Unlike other good football strategies on our list, the effectiveness of the Kelly Criterion method varies a lot from one person to another. For that reason, if you are not entirely confident in your skills as a punter and not willing to risk a big percent of your bankroll, simply avoid this method and focus on other strategies on our list.

Summary: Football Betting Strategies

Betting is mostly about experience, research, and making good, valuable bets. It is important to know that even punters who have years and years of experience still make bad bets, so don’t let losses discourage you.

While experienced punters have developed many fantastic football betting strategies over the years, we’ve included some of the most efficient ones in our list. However, regardless of the strategy you decide to use, remember that betting is a risky business, and never risk more than what you can afford.

With that said, we hope that one of our strategies will help you make a profit and finally beat the bookies.